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冰川冻土  2014 

1956-2010年新疆焉耆盆地径流变化特征及驱动力分析

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0080, PP. 670-677

Keywords: 径流,变化,驱动力,焉耆盆地,新疆

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Abstract:

根据新疆焉耆盆地3个水文站1956-2010年的月径流量监测数据,应用不均匀系数、集中度、变化幅度等指标,分析了近55a来焉耆盆地融雪径流的变化规律,并采用主成分分析法讨论了径流变化的驱动机理.结果表明焉耆盆地的年径流量呈“减少-增加-减少”的变化趋势;总体上,1956-1986年间呈缓慢减少趋势,1987-2002年间出现呈显著增加趋势,2003-2010年间呈显著减少趋势;径流主要集中在夏季,春季径流量最少.随着时间的推移,开都河与黄水沟径流年内分配不均匀性与径流年内分配集中度减小,清水河径流年内分配不均匀性与径流年内分配集中度增加;开都河、黄水沟与清水河径流年内分配绝对变化幅度总体上随时间增加而呈先减小后增加的趋势,相对变化幅度随时间增加而减小.焉耆盆地径流变化的影响因素可以归纳为农业活动、气象因素与人口增加等.

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