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冰川冻土  2012 

天山乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川径流模拟研究

, PP. 130-138

Keywords: HBV模型,冰川径流,度日因子,冰川面积变化,冰川体积变化

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Abstract:

采用HBV-ETH模型,利用1980-2006年实测水文气象数据对乌鲁木齐河源区1号冰川日径流进行模拟研究.在考虑度日因子和面积变化的基础上,模拟了1980-2006年流域的径流深和土壤蒸散发;依据水量平衡原理,得到了流域冰川物质平衡和冰川体积变化序列,同时对比验证了模型的模拟效果.研究表明若将冰川面积视为常数进行模拟,将会使得模拟径流比实际偏大,过去26a平均高估7%左右.1980-2006年间,若不考虑面积变化,累积体积变化被高估3%左右.

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