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冰川冻土  2012 

雅鲁藏布江流域1978-2009年气候时空变化及未来趋势研究

, PP. 64-71

Keywords: 雅鲁藏布江流域,气候时空变化,趋势预测,插值,R/S分析

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Abstract:

利用1km分辨率DEM数据及ArcHydroTools提取了雅鲁藏布江流域边界,明确给出了该流域具体的地理边界及空间范围.依据雅鲁藏布江流域范围内及周边39个气象站点1978—2009年近32a逐年气象数据,综合运用GIS空间插值技术及气象统计分析方法,对雅鲁藏布江流域气候(着眼于降水和气温指标)时空变化特征及未来变化趋势进行了研究.结果表明1978—2009年间流域范围内多年平均降水大致趋势为由西至东逐步增加,年平均降水量以7.935mm·(10a)-1的速度缓慢增加.流域多年平均气温大致由河源至下游逐渐升高,河谷腹地至流域边界处逐渐降低,并出现了以拉萨、乃东为中心的局部高温带;近32a流域年平均气温增加2.2℃,增加幅度达到0.489℃·(10a)-1,高于全球及全国同期增温速率.近10a间,流域平均降水以-139mm·(10a)-1的速度显著减少,气温则以1.14℃·(10a)-1的速度增加,整个流域气候呈现暖干趋势.利用R/S分析法预测得知,流域年降水量可能出现短时间的减少波动,但未来较长一段时间内,流域降水及气温仍将保持增加趋势,流域气候呈现暖湿化趋势.

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