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冰川冻土  2012 

青海省春小麦干旱灾害风险评估与区划

, PP. 1416-1423

Keywords: 青海,春小麦,干旱,风险区划,评估

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Abstract:

基于青海省1961—2010年47个气象站和8个农气代表站气象资料、干旱灾情资料的收集和整理,分析了春小麦生育期土壤相对湿度与降水距平百分率的关系,确定了青海省春小麦不同生育期干旱风险评估的实际阈值,并对青海省春小麦不同生育期干旱进行风险区划.结果表明在青海省春小麦营养期,轻旱易发生在祁连山地区、青海湖地区西南部及东部农业区的少数地区,轻旱的频率大都在15%以上;中旱易发生在柴达木地区大部及东部农业区大部,频率大都在10%以上;重旱和特旱出现频率均在柴达木盆地西部较高,频率分别为10.7%、34%以上.生殖期的轻旱易发生在祁连山地区,频率在15.3%~23.3%之间;中旱易发生在青海湖地区南部及东部农业区少数地区,频率大都在4.0%~5.7%之间;重旱频率从东南部到西北呈现带状递减趋势,频率最高的主要发生在东部农业区,出现频率为8.3%~9.6%;特旱易发生在柴达木盆地地区,出现频率为27%~44.3%之间.产量形成期的轻旱、中旱、重旱均易发生在东部农业区,频率分别为2.3%~3.3%、8.7%~13.3%、6.0%~9.0%之间,特旱易发生在柴达木地区,出现频率为43.3%~51.3%之间.

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