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冰川冻土  2012 

青海省极端气温事件的气候变化特征研究

, PP. 1371-1379

Keywords: 青海省,极端气温指数,趋势,相关

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Abstract:

选用青海省37个气象站点1961—2011年近51a,逐日气温(最高、最低、平均)资料,采用国际通用的极端气温指数定义计算了9种极端气温指数,并分析其主要气候特征.结果表明近51a青海省极端气温呈明显上升趋势,极端冷指标(霜冻、结冰日数、冷夜、冷昼指数)呈下降趋势,而极端暖指标(夏天日数、暖夜、暖昼指数)呈上升趋势,且极端冷指标的减少幅度高于极端暖指标的增加幅度.空间分布上,极端气温指数在全省呈一致的上升(下降)趋势分布.在近51a的时间尺度上各种极端气温指数都存在多个较明显的周期,如较短的3~8a的准周期,以及13a、17a、27a的年代际周期特征.青海省年平均气温与极端气温指数有很高的相关性,气候变暖突变前后极端气温指数表现出明显差异在变暖突变发生后,霜冻日数、冷夜指数、冷昼指数、结冰日数明显减少,夏天日数、暖夜指数及暖昼指数明显增加,其中相对指数几乎呈倍数显著变化,表明极端气温指数对气候变暖有很好的响应.

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