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冰川冻土  1994 

冷圈对全球变暖的响应与海面上升

, PP. 274-282

Keywords: 冰川物质平衡,雪积累率,冰盖增长,海面上升

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Abstract:

Oerlemans等(1992)用能量平衡模式所做的全球冰川和小冰帽物质平衡的敏感性试验表明,未来全球1K增温引起的山地冰川和小冰帽的加速消融将使海面上升0.58mm/a.比Meier早些时候的估计值小了1倍以上。近来有关大陆冰盖雪积累率随气温升高而增加的报道引起了广泛的注意。1975-1985年比1930-1985年平均增加了~20%,这意味着导致海面下降0.1-1.2mm/a.可能人类面临海面上升的威胁将会有所缓和。但是大陆冰盖是在消融、缩小,还是在缓慢增长尚难确定。在尚未搞清冷圈对全球变暖的响应之前,海面变化预测的不确定性是不可避免的。

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