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冰川冻土  2013 

1964-2010年青藏高原长江源各拉丹冬地区冰川变化及其不确定性分析

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0031, PP. 255-262

Keywords: 冰川,冰川变化,气候变化,青藏高原,各拉丹东

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Abstract:

利用1964年美国CORONA间谍卫星影像和1976-2010年的LandsatMSS/TM/ETM+遥感影像,对青藏高原长江源各拉丹冬地区的冰川进行监测,获得每10a间隔的冰川面积数据,并对冰川制图中的不确定性进行了评估.由于冰川表面比较洁净,认为该地区冰川变化的不确定性主要由分辨率(Landsat)和人为操作差异造成,误差可达1%~2%.通过对比发现1964-2010年间,各拉丹冬地区冰川面积总体上减少了45.75km2,相对变化为6.80%,冰川年平均变化速度约为0.99km2·a-1,相对变化速度为0.15%·a-1;该地区冰川总体退缩较为缓慢,但部分冰川变化显著,在138条冰川中,有14条大冰川存在较为明显的变化.在过去的近50a中,该地区的冰川并不是都呈退缩状态,先后有9条冰川出现过前进的现象,其中有1条冰川一直处于前进状态,长江源头冰川(姜古迪如北支冰川)先后出现过两次前进,分别发生在1964-1977年间和2000-2010年间.

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