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冰川冻土  2013 

1955-2011年兰州沙尘暴、浮尘天气事件发生概率的Markov模型研究

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0043, PP. 364-368

Keywords: 兰州,气候变化,Markov模型,沙尘暴、,浮尘天气事件

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Abstract:

依据甘肃兰州市1955-2010年沙尘暴、浮尘天气事件年变化资料,划分年强度分级,应用Markov模型对其不同强度发生概率进行分析,在此基础上预测和检验了2011年兰州沙尘暴浮尘天气事件的发生概率.结果显示2011年沙尘暴发生的特强年、强烈年、强发生年、一般发生年和少发年的概率为,而事实上2011年发生沙尘暴0次,属于少发年,符合预测结果;2011年浮尘天气发生的特强年、强烈年、强发生年、一般发生年和少发年的概率为,而事实上2011年发生浮尘9次,介于平常年和少发年范围,符合预测结果.随着时间序列的延长,Markov模型可成为短期沙尘暴浮尘天气变化预测的有效途径.

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