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冰川冻土  2013 

青海省气象干旱对粮食产量的影响及其评估方法研究

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0078, PP. 687-691

Keywords: 青海省,期望产量,粮食产量,干旱损失,评估

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Abstract:

气象干旱是青海省发生最为频繁的气象灾害之一,具有出现频率高、持续时间长、影响范围广等特点,对农业生产造成极大的影响,严重的干旱少雨之年常使农业大幅度减产,甚至绝收.为了研究气象干旱对青海省粮食产量产生的影响,根据拉格朗日插值方法给出了青海省无干旱时"期望产量"的确定方法,并据此求算出历年干旱对青海省粮食产量的损失量值,然后依据农作物不同生育期所发生的干旱的强度、范围以及作物对干旱的敏感度等关系,建立了干旱损失量的统计和评估模式.在2006-2010年青海省粮食产量评估中进行应用,5a中有4a误差小于5%,仅2006年误差百分率达到-9.38%;由此,证明了运用干旱损失评估方法,可以评估出干旱对粮食产量的损失量,从而评估出青海省的实际粮食产量,效果较好,可以在青海省今后的粮食产量预报和评估中推广应用.

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