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冰川冻土  2012 

近50a来新疆区域与天山典型流域极端洪水变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

, PP. 1037-1046

Keywords: 极端洪水变化,年最大洪峰,近50,a来,新疆天山河流

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Abstract:

以年极端洪水超标率来反映区域极端洪水,分析了新疆区域极端洪水变化;以年最大洪峰记录分析了天山山区主要河流极端洪水变化规律,并用14站资料分析了天山山区气候变化特征,讨论了天山主要河流极端洪水变化对区域气候变化的响应.结果表明受气候变暖影响,1957-2006年全疆极端洪水呈区域性加重趋势,尤其南疆区域极端洪水明显加剧,北疆区域也有加重趋势,但相对较缓.全疆及北疆、南疆在20世纪90年代中期以来都处于洪水高发阶段.近50a来,在新疆区域洪水呈加重趋势的变化背景下,发源于天山南坡的托什干河和库玛拉克河年最大洪峰流量呈显著增加趋势,发源于天山北坡的玛纳斯河与乌鲁木齐河年最大洪峰流量虽有增加,但是变化趋势较缓.以年最大洪峰流量发生转折年为界,天山典型流域托什干河、库玛拉克河、玛纳斯河和乌鲁木齐河在20世纪90年代(或80年代)以来与前期相比,呈现出相似的变化特征年最大洪峰流量明显增大,年际间变化更加剧烈,洪水年更频繁.以年最大洪峰流量发生转折年份为界,玛纳斯河、托什干河和乌鲁木齐河后期的年最大洪峰集中日期较前期推迟2~9d,库玛拉克河却提前5d.玛纳斯河、乌鲁木齐河和库玛拉克河后期的集中度较前期增加0.8%~8.3%,托什干河减小1.1%.1961-2010年,新疆天山山区气温明显上升,升温率为0.34℃·(10a)-1,1997年以后明显增暖;天山山区降水显著增加,增加速率15.6mm·(10a)-1,同时极端降水强度增大、频数增多.近50a来天山主要河流极端洪水变化与区域增温以及天山山区极端降水事件增多等有密切关系.

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