Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive () and moving average () parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and autocorrelation function (ACF) of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC). The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%. 1. Introduction Rice is one of the most important cereal crops of India occupying an area of 41.92 million hectare with an annual production of 89.09 million tonnes with an average productivity of 2.13？t？ha？1 (2009-10) (http://www.agricoop.nic.in/). It plays a vital role in the national food security and would continue to remain so because of its wider adaptability to grow under diverse ecosystems. Rice contributes 40.8% of total food grain and remains the principal source of livelihood for more than 58% of the population. With the stabilization of area under rice at around 42 million hectare, plateauing, and/or declining productivity trend, especially in the Northern and Southern zones and shrinking natural resource bases, the only opportunities for sustaining the current level of sufficiency are seen in the vast underexploited potential of rainfed Eastern India [1]. A proper trend analysis and forecast of production of such an important crop in the potential Eastern Region is having significance on many accounts. Critical analysis of production and productivity is a prerequisite for proper knowledge base on the ecology and appropriate research/development efforts for harvesting maximum possible potential. Trend analysis has been attempted for crops like papaya and garlic by
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