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基于统计降尺度模型的太湖流域降水
气温变化预测
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Abstract:
利用太湖流域7个国家气象站实测降水、气温数据和NCEP再分析数据，分别建立了太湖流域降水、气温统计降尺度模型；在A2和B2排放情景下应用HadCM3的输出数据，预测太湖流域未来2020s(2010~2039年)、2050s(2040~2069年)和2080s(2070~2099年)三个时期降水、气温变化情况。研究结果表明：A2情景下，未来3个时期太湖流域降水呈先增加后减少趋势，B2情景下，未来3个时期太湖流域降水呈增加趋势；两种气候情景下，未来3个时期太湖流域气温总体呈上升趋势，其中A2情景比B2情景升温趋势更加显著。本文研究成果可为政府相关决策层制定未来太湖流域社会经济发展规划提供科学的依据
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