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气候变化对渭河流域径流的影响
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Abstract:
本文采用GCMs和水文模型耦合的方式，基于SWAT在渭河流域构建分布式水文模型，并采用SUFI-2算法进行参数敏感性分析、参数率定、模型验证以及不确定性分析，从而对渭河流域1961~2008年的径流过程进行模拟。然后将GCMs降尺度生成不同情景下降水、最高、最低气温日序列输入SWAT模型，模拟流域未来径流量，从而分析未来不同气候变化条件下流域径流可能的变化。研究结果表明：2046~2065和2081~2100时期不同情景下流域多年平均径流量分别为80.4与104.3亿m3，较基准期增加12.4%和45%。未来两个时期，枯季流量较基准期更低，而洪峰流量则将较基准期更高，即流域内极端事件(干旱与洪水)在未来两个时期有加剧趋势。不同情景下渭河流域径流深空间变化较为一致，即上游部分子流域和北洛河上游地区径流量较基准期有所减少，而流域中下游地区径流量均呈一定的增加趋势。
In this study,
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