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Finance 2013
货币数量关系之间的一个控制方程—基于中国数据的实证分析
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Abstract:
本文从Friedman原始收入货币数量论出发，通过以货币化指数及其变化率代替Friedman收入货币数量方程式中的货币流通速度及其变化率变量，创建了一个新的货币数量方程式。由于该新方程式表现了实际经济增长率、通货膨胀率、货币增长率、以及货币化指数变化率四者之间的恒等式关系，所以，可以作为货币数量关系之间的一个控制方程。本文以中国货币M1和M2为对象，选取1993~2012年的年度数据为样本，先采用六个向量自回归(VAR)模型对相关变量在2013年的预期值进行预测，再采用本文所创建的货币数量控制方程进行验证，结果发现：货币M2的预期增长率值与控制方程一致，表明预测值较为合理，这时，2013年实际经济增长率预期值为8.6%，通胀率预期值为5.4%，M2增长率预期值为17.5%，其货币化指数变化率预期值为1.8%；而货币M1的预期值与控制方程差距较大，但能够确定其预期增长率值变化区间，即M1的增长率预期值属于区间[26.8%, 36.0%]，其货币化指数变化率预期值属于区间[10.7%, 18.9%]。
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