GIS-Based Urbanization Prediction Model Considering Neighborhood Relationship of the Unit of the “Block” in the Outskirts of Metropolitan Area

On the outskirts of the metropolitan areas in Japan, the rapid development of urban areas and the improvement in transportation networks have brought various land use problems in their wake, including urban diffusion and the phenomenon of urban sprawl. There is a strong need for accurate predictions of land-use change and future urbanization, as well as investigation of the appropriateness of present land use controls and the land use controls that will be required in the future. This study took as its object the outskirts of the Keihanshin (Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe) Metropolitan Area, the second largest conurbation in Japan after the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, and used the digital maps and spatial analysis offered by GIS. It aimed to: 1) describe the characteristics of land use controls, land use and urbanization; 2) develop an urbanization prediction model that considers the neighboring relationship of neighboring areas on a 100 m mesh unit; 3) apply this model to the study area and verify its validity regarding the conditions of present land use; 4) compare urbanization prediction results by this model with the present land use controls; and 5) make predictions for future urbanization and propose remedial measures for future land use controls.