This study
constructs downscaling statistical model in analyzing the hydrological modeling
in the study area which faces the risk of flood occurrence as the impact of
climate change. The combination of chemometric method and time series analysis
in this study show that even during the monsoon season, rainfall and stream
flow are not the major contribution towards the changing of water level in the
study area. Based on Correlation Test, it shows that suspended solid and water
level show high correlation with p-value < 0.05. Factor Analysis being
carried out to determine the major contribution to the changes of Water Level
and the result show that Suspended Solid shows a strong factor pattern with value
0.829. Based on Control Chat Builder for time series analysis, the Upper
Control Limit for water level and suspended solid are 7.529 m and 1947.049
tons/day and the Lower Control Limit are 6.678 m and 178.135 tons/day. This
shows that human development in the area gives high impact towards climate
change and risk of flood in the study area which commonly faces flood during
monsoon season.
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