In East Africa where a drastic improvement in
food security is an urgent need, rice, a non-traditional crop in most of countries in the
region, has emerged as an important food crop that could extend the Green
Revolution to the region following the introduction of New Rice for Africa
(NERICA) in the early 2000s. Using data collected through a nationwide survey,
this paper examines the possibility of rice green revolution by estimating the
technical efficiency (TE) of rainfed rice farmers in Uganda and simulates how
unfavorable climate changes affect it. The estimated stochastic frontier yield
function showed that the mean TE was 65% for lowland and 60% for upland, and
that the potential yield of rainfed rice cultivation was as high as 3 t·ha-1. However, the stochastic simulation of
rainfall and rice yield revealed that unfavorable climate changes could erase
the high potential in crop yield. Rainfed rice cultivation could be a leading
sector for realizing Green Revolution in East Africa. It plays a critical role
in this process to improve rice farmers’ TE, which is lower in the region than
in Asia. Worsening climatic conditions, if occur, make this need even more
imperative.
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