Forests contribute to climate change mitigation by removing atmospheric carbon dioxide and storing it in biomass and other carbon pools. Additionally, since appropriate forest management can reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, it is important to estimate the magnitude of these services to include them into climate policy. We used a forest inventory stratified by canopy cover in the oak-pine forest of La Primavera Biosphere Reserve in México (30,500 ha), to assess the potential provision of forest carbon services. Inventory results were used in combination with a Landsat image to estimate carbon stocks in arboreal biomass. Potential carbon removals were calculated from published allometric equations and models estimating tree growth rates, for enhancements in forested areas and for reforestation/afforestation. Carbon stocks estimated in arboreal biomass at the time of the inventory were 4.16 MtCO 2eq (3.42–4.89). The potential for further carbon sequestration and enhancement could take the level of stocks up to 9.77 MtCO 2eq (7.66–11.89, 95% confidence interval); previous fires have degraded carbon stocks below their natural potential. The results present a gradient of carbon stocks for different degradation levels and are consistent with national and international estimates and previous local research. The baseline for the estimation of reduced emissions is critical for assessing the overall contribution of forests to mitigate climate change. The local baseline of emissions might be around 1% according to historical data; however, when enhancements and reduced emissions are valuated together, a baseline of 3.7% is required to prevent the creation of perverse incentives favouring previously degraded areas; considering these figures for reduced emissions, the yearly carbon services provided by La Primavera, including enhancements, sequestration and reduced emissions, could be between 169.4 ktCO 2eq/year (134.8–204.5) and 282.1 ktCO 2eq/year (228.2–337.1), respectively. Over a period of 60 years, this would be equivalent to 2.4 and 4.1 times the magnitude of mean standing stocks at the time of the inventory. If incentive-based mechanisms are used to maintain and enhance forest carbon services and perverse incentives are to be avoided, a balanced mix of incentives and controls is needed.
References
[1]
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme; Eggleston, H.S., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K., Eds.; IGES: Hayama, Japan, 2006.
[2]
Van der Werf, G.R.; Morton, D.C.; Defries, R.S.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Kasibhatla, P.S.; Jackson, R.B.; Collatz, G.J.; Randerson, J.T. CO2 emissions from forest loss. Nat. Geosci. 2009, 2, 737–738, doi:10.1038/ngeo671.
Beerling, D.J.; Woodward, F.I. Vegetation and Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: Modeling the First 400 Million Years; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2004.
[5]
Strassburg, B.; Turner, K.; Fisher, B.; Schaeffer, R.; Lovett, A. Reducing emissions from deforestation-The “combined incentives” mechanism and empirical simulations. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2009, 19, 265–278, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.11.004.
[6]
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Guidance on Systems for Providing Information on How Safeguards are Addressed and Respected and Modalities Relating to Forest Reference Emission Levels and Forest Reference Levels as Referred to in Decision 1/CP.16. In Proceedings of the 2011 Durban Climate Change Conference, Durban, KZN, South Africa, 28 November 2011–11 December 2011; UNFCCC: Durban, KZN, South Africa, 2012.
[7]
Maniatis, D.; Mollicone, D. Options for sampling and stratification for national forest inventories to implement REDD+ under the UNFCCC. Carbon Balance Manag. 2010, 5, 9, doi:10.1186/1750-0680-5-9.
[8]
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme; Penman, J., Gytarsky, M., Hiraishi, T., Krug, T., Kruger, D., Pipatti, R., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K., Eds.; IGES: Hayama, Japan, 2003.
[9]
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Report of the Conference of the Parties on Its Fifteenth Session, Held in Copenhagen Held From 7 to 19 December 2009. FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1.; UNFCCC: Durban, KZN, South Africa, 2010.
[10]
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Report of the Conference of the Parties on Its Seventh Session, Held at Marrakesh from 29 October to 10 November 2001. FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1.; UNFCCC: Durban, KZN, South Africa, 2002.
[11]
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Minimum Values for Forests (A/R Projects). Designated National Authorities, México. Available online: http://cdm.unfccc.int/DNA/ARDNA.html?CID=140 (accessed on 20 May 2012).
[12]
CONAFOR; National Forestry Commission. Visión de México sobre REDD+. Comisión Nacional Forestal: Zapopan, México, 2010.
[13]
Herold, M.; Román-Cuesta, R.M.; Mollicone, D.; Hirata, Y.; van Laake, P.; Asner, G.P.; Souza, C.; Skutsch, M.; Avitabile, V.; Macdicken, K. Options for monitoring and estimating historical carbon emissions from forest degradation in the context of REDD+. Carbon Balance Manag. 2011, 6, 13, doi:10.1186/1750-0680-6-13.
[14]
United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change. Views on Methodological Guidance for Activities Relating to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the Role of Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests and Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks in Developing Countries. FCCC/SBSTA/2011/MISC.7.; UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice: Durban, KZN, South Africa, 2011.
[15]
United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change. Methodological Guidance for Activities Relating to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the Role of Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests and Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks in Developing Countries. FCCC/SBSTA/2010/MISC.1.; UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice: Durban, KZN, South Africa, 2010.
[16]
United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change. Report on the Expert Meeting on Forest Reference Emission Levels and Forest Reference Levels for Implementation of REDD-Plus Activities. FCCC/SBSTA/2011/INF.18.; UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice: Durban, KZN, South Africa, 2011.
[17]
Skutsch, M.; Torres, A.B.; Mwampamba, T.H.; Ghilardi, A.; Herold, M. Dealing with locally-driven degradation: A quick start option under REDD+. Carbon Balance Manag. 2011, 6, doi:10.1186/1750-0680-6-16.
[18]
CONANP. Natural Protected Area Management Plan for La Primavera; Comisión Nacional de áreas Naturales Protegidas, SEMARNAT: México D.F., México, 2000.
[19]
UNESCO, 2011. Man and the Biosphere Programme. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Available online: http://www.unesco.org/mabdb/br/brdir/directory/contact.asp?code=MEX (accessed on 29 September 2011).
[20]
Martinez, A. Revelan satélites da？o en bosque. Grafico Animado. Mural 13 de Mayo; Newspaper Article: Guadalajara, México, 2012.
[21]
NASA 2012. Fire Chars Forest Near Guadalajara. News. Available online: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=78058&src=eoa-iotd (accessed on 28 May 2012).
[22]
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Revised 1996 IPCC Guide- Lines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; United Nations Environment Programme, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, International Energy Agency: Paris, France, 1997.
[23]
Alcocer, M. Programa Estatal de Accion Ante el Cambio Climatico del Estado de Jalisco. Inventario de Emisiones y Remociones de GEI en el sector de Agricultural, Bosques y Otros Usos de Suelo. Programa Estatal de Acción ante el Cambio Climático del Estado de Jalisco; Universidad Autónoma de Guadalajara: City, México, 2011–2013.
[24]
INEGI, National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Conjunto nacional de uso de suelo y vegetación a escala 1:250000, Serie III; DGG-INEGI: México, 2005.
[25]
INEGI, National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Conjunto nacional de uso de suelo y vegetación a escala 1:250,000 Serie IV; Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia: Aguascalientes, México, 2010.
[26]
De Jong, B.; Anaya, C.; Masera, O.; Olguín, M.; Paz, F.; Etchevers, J.; Martínez, R.D.; Guerrero, G.; Balbontín, C. Greenhouse gas emissions between 1993 and 2002 from land-use change and forestry in México. For. Ecol. Manag. 2010, 260, 1689–1701, doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2010.08.011.
[27]
Estadísticas de Incendios Forestales, CONAFOR, National Forestry Commission. Available online: http://www.conafor.gob.mx/portal/index.php/transparencia-y-rendicion-de-cuentas/transparencia-focalizada/programa-incendios-forestales (accessed on 28 May 2012).
[28]
SEMARNAT Secretary Of Environment And Natural Resources, Volumen de la produccion forestal maderable por region y municipio segun grupo de especies 2008–2009. Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Delegación en el Estado. Subdelegación de Gestión para la Protección Ambiental y Recursos Naturales. Available online: http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/sistemas/aee11/estatal/jal/default.htm (accessed on 28 May 2012).
[29]
Alvaro Garcia Chavez, Intencional el incendio en La Primavera: Funcionario—Declaration of Alvaro Garcia Chavez Secretary of Rural Development of the State of Jalisco. El Universal, 24, April, 2012.
Návar, J. Allometric equations for tree species and carbon stocks for forests of northwestern México. For. Ecol. Manag. 2009, 257, 427–434, doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.028.
[32]
Návar-Cháidez, J.J. The temperate forests of the state of Nuevo León: Sustainable management for goods and environmental services. Madera y Bosques 2010, 16, 51–69.
[33]
Merlín-Bermudes, E. Estudios sobre el conocimiento de algunas especies de encino en Durango, México. Ph.D. Thesis, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Linares, México, June 2005.
[34]
Palacios-Sanchez, L.A.; Martínez-Menes, M.; Sandoval, B.F.; Solorio, C.O.; Exebio-García, A.; Oropeza-Mota, J.L.; Palacios-Sánchez, L.A. Clasificador genérico de objetos en imágenes ETM+. Agrociencia 2006, 40, 613–626.
[35]
Paz-Pellat, F.; Marín-Sosa, M.I.; Reyes-Reyes, M.; Ibarra-Hernández, F.; Pascual-Ramírez, F. Documento de referencia para la estimacion de la cobertura aerea anual de la vegetacion y su tendencia de cambio en el estado de Chiapas; Colegio de Postgraduados: México, 2010.
[36]
Victoria-Hernandez, A.; Ni？o-Alcocer, M.; Rodríguez-ávalos, J.A.; Argumedo-Espinoza, J.A. Generacion de información de uso de suelo y vegetación proyectos y convenios escala 1:50000; Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia: México, 2011. Available online: http://www.inegi.org.mx/eventos/2011/conf_ibero/doc/ET6_46_HERN%C3%81NDEZ.pdf (accessed on 20 September 2013).
[37]
Phillips, O.L.; Malhi, Y.; Higuchi, N.; Laurance, W.F.; Nunez, P.V.; Vasquez, R.M.; Laurance, S.G.; Ferreira, L.V.; Stern, M.; Brown, S.; et al. Changes in the carbon balance of tropical forests: Evidence from long-term plots. Science 1998, 282, 439–442, doi:10.1126/science.282.5388.439.
[38]
Santiago-Pérez, A.L.; Villavicencio-García, R. Multiple Analyses of Environmental and Structural Variables to Characterization of Quercus and Pinus in the La Primavera, Jalisco, México. In Presented at The Annual Meeting of the Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation, Morelia, México, 15–19 July 2007.
[39]
Cairns, M.A.; Brown, S.; Helmer, E.H.; Baumgardner, G.A. Root biomass allocation in the world’s upland forests. Oecologia 1997, 111, 1–11, doi:10.1007/s004420050201.
[40]
Balderas Torres, A.; Lovett, J.C. Using basal area to estimate above-ground carbon stocks in forests: La Primavera Biosphere’s Reserve, Mexico. Forestry 2012, 86, 267–281, doi:10.1093/forestry/cps084.
[41]
Schreuder, H.T.; Ernst, R.; Ramirez-Maldonado, H. Statistical Techniques for Sampling and Monitoring Natural Resource. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-126; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Fort Collins, CO, USA, 2004.
[42]
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000. Available online: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/ (accessed on 28 May 2012).
[43]
Shaw, J.D. Models for Estimation and Simulation of Crown and Canopy Cover. Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis Symposium; Department of Agriculture Forest Service: Washington, DC, USA, 2003; p. 222. Available online: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/142937 (accessed on 7 November 2013).
[44]
Brown, S. Estimating Biomass and Biomass Change of Tropical Forests: A Primer; Food and Agriculture Organization: Rome, Italy, 1997.
[45]
Chave, J.; Condit, R.; Aguilar, S.; Hernandez, A.; Lao, S.; Perez, R. Error propagation and scaling for tropical forest biomass estimates. Philos. Trans. R. Soc.: Biol. Sci. 2004, 359, 409–420, doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1425.
[46]
Van Breugel, M.; Ransijn, J.; Craven, D.; Bongers, F.; Hall, J.S. Estimating carbon stock in secondary forests: Decisions and uncertainties associated with allometric biomass models. For. Ecol. Manag. 2011, 262, 1648–1657, doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.07.018.
[47]
Zavala-Chávez, F. Introducción a la ecología de la regeneración natural de encino; Universidad Autónoma Chapingo: México, 2001.
[48]
Wunder, S. Can Payments for Environmental Services Reduce Deforestation and Forest Degradation? In Realising REDD+: National Strategy and Policy Options; Angelsen, A., Brockhaus, M., Kanninen, M., Sills, E., Sunderlin, W.D., Wertz-Kanounnikoff, S., Eds.; Center for International Forestry Research: Bogor, Indonesia, 2009; pp. 213–224.
