Objectives. Violence remains a significant public health issue in the United States. To determine if urban vacant properties were associated with an increased risk of assaultive violence and if this association was modified by important neighborhood institutions (e.g., schools, parks/playgrounds, police stations, and alcohol outlets). Methods. Longitudinal ecologic study of all 1816 block groups in Philadelphia. Aggravated assault and vacant property data were compiled yearly from 2002 to 2006 and linked to block groups. A mixed effects negative binomial regression model examined the association of vacant properties and assaults between and within block groups. Results. Among all block groups, 84% experienced at least one vacant property, 89% at least one aggravated assault, and 64% at least one gun assault. Between block groups, the risk of aggravated assault increased 18% for every category shift of vacant properties (IRR 1.18, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.25, ). Parks/playgrounds and alcohol outlets potentially modified the association between vacant properties and aggravated assaults but only at low levels of vacancy. Conclusions. Increasing levels of vacancy were associated with increased risk of assaultive violence in urban block groups. 1. Introduction Despite declining rates since the 1990s [1], violence remains a significant public health issue in the United States. As evidence of this, many major cities, such as Philadelphia, have seen consistently increasing rates of aggravated assault despite national trends to the contrary [2]. Leadership continue to seek evidence-based violence reduction strategies that can be readily implemented and that resonate with community members. Various factors that may influence violence have been well researched [3–10], in particular behavioral risk factors. While some of these factors have been tied to intervention strategies, the relationship of physical structures to rates of violence has been less well proven as a potential modifiable target for intervention. Indeed neighborhood physical disorder remains a consistent concern for community leaders and residents [11, 12] and may be associated with aggravated assault [13]. Vacant properties have been alluded to as key, highly modifiable, and easily palpable signs of physical disorder that may also be specifically related to the commission of aggravated assault [14]. Vacant lots and buildings potentially offer refuge to criminal and other illegal activity and very visibly symbolize that a neighborhood has deteriorated, that no one is in control, and that violent or criminal
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