Seismic process is usually considered as an example of occurrence of the regime of self-organizing criticality (SOC). A model of seismic regime as an assemblage of randomly developing episodes of avalanche-like relaxation, occurring at a set of metastable subsystems, can be the alternative of such consideration. The model is defined by two parameters characterizing the scaling hierarchical structure of the geophysical medium and the degree of metastability of subsystems of this medium. In the assemblage, these two parameters define a model b-value. An advantage of such approach consists in a clear physical sense of parameters of the model. The application of the model for parameterization of the seismic regime of the south part of Sakhalin Island is considered. The models of space changeability of the scaling parameter and of temporal changeability of the parameter of metastability are constructed. The anomalous increase of the parameter of metastability was found in connection with the Gornozavodsk and Nevelsk earthquakes. At the present time, high values of this parameter occur in the area of the Poyasok Isthmus. This finding is examined in comparison with other indications of an increase in probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake in the South Sakhalin region. 1. Introduction Seismic process is usually considered as an example of realization of the self-organized criticality—the SOC-model [1–3]. However, as it was argued in [4] the SOC model has a rather limited possibility in interpretation of real seismotectonic processes. Besides, there is no clear interpretation in terms of this model of a difference between regions of high and low seismic activity. Moreover, the analogue between critical phenomena and seismic process is not satisfying enough. The critical phenomena (the second-order phase transitions, for example) proceed without discharge or absorption of energy; and this is their fundamental peculiarity, in many respects determining other features of the critical behavior. But earthquakes are accompanied by release of huge amounts of energy, and this is their fundamental property. Thus it can be concluded, that consideration of a seismic process in terms of the SOC-model is not quite satisfactory. Therefore, alternative approaches are of interest. For quantitative statistic modeling of seismicity regime, the Generalized Omori law and the Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequence (ETAS) model are used at the present time [5–7]. However, these models have a formal statistical character; the determination of parameters of the models and even the
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