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South American Climatology and Impacts of El Ni?o in NCEP’s CFSR Data

DOI: 10.1155/2013/492630

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Abstract:

Understanding regional climate variability is necessary in order to assess the impacts of climate change. Until recently, the best methods for evaluating regional climate variability were via observation networks and coarse-gridded reanalysis datasets. However, the recent development of high-resolution reanalysis datasets offers an opportunity to better evaluate the climatologically diverse continent of South America. This study compares NCEP’s CFS reanalysis dataset with NCEP’s coarser-resolution reanalysis II dataset to determine if CFS reanalysis improves our ability to represent the regional climate of South America. Our results show several regional differences between the CFSR and Re2 data, especially in areas of large topographical gradients. A comparison with the University of Delaware and TRMM precipitation datasets lends credence to some of these differences, such as heavier precipitation associated with anomalous 925?hPa westerlies over northwestern Peru and Ecuador during El Ni?o. However, our results also stress that caution is advised when using reanalysis data to assess regional climate variability, especially in areas of large topographical gradient such as the Andes. Our results establish a baseline to better study climate change, especially given the release of IPCC AR5 model simulations. 1. Introduction Representing summer climatology in South America is complicated by the diversity of its topographical features. As noted by Garreaud et al. [1], the Andes act as a climatological barrier separating arid conditions to the west in the Peru-Bolivian Atacama Desert from wet conditions to the east in the Amazon Basin. The aridity in the Atacama Desert is related to the position of the southeastern Pacific subtropical high, which causes large-scale subsidence [2, 3]. The ability of the Andes to block tropospheric flow also results in a rain shadow in the Altiplano [4]. The precipitation that does occur in the area is confined mostly to austral summer (DJF) and is driven by diurnal convection and the westward transport of moisture from the interior of the continent [5–7]. With the recent implementation of high-resolution reanalysis datasets, it would be interesting to assess their ability to simulate South American climatology. This study compares the high-resolution CFSR data with coarse-grid reanalysis II (hereafter referred to as Re2) applied to South American climatology and interannual variability. The high-resolution reanalysis data will also allow us to detect features not seen in the coarse resolution data such as the climatological

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