Despite the benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, approximately one-third of stage II gastric cancer (GC) patients developed recurrences. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic algorithm for gastric cancer (GCPS) that can robustly identify high-risk group for recurrence among stage II patients. A multi-step gene expression profiling study was conducted. First, a microarray gene expression profiling of archived paraffin-embedded tumor blocks was used to identify candidate prognostic genes (N = 432). Second, a focused gene expression assay including prognostic genes was used to develop a robust clinical assay (GCPS) in stage II patients from the same cohort (N = 186). Third, a predefined cut off for the GCPS was validated using an independent stage II cohort (N = 216). The GCPS was validated in another set with stage II GC who underwent surgery without adjuvant treatment (N = 300). GCPS was developed by summing the product of Cox regression coefficients and normalized expression levels of 8 genes (LAMP5, CDC25B, CDK1, CLIP4, LTB4R2, MATN3, NOX4, TFDP1). A prospectively defined cut-point for GCPS classified 22.7% of validation cohort treated with chemoradiotherapy (N = 216) as high-risk group with 5-year recurrence rate of 58.6% compared to 85.4% in the low risk group (hazard ratio for recurrence = 3.16, p = 0.00004). GCPS also identified high-risk group among stage II patients treated with surgery only (hazard ratio = 1.77, p = 0.0053).
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