全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
PLOS ONE  2013 

A Multi-Metric Approach to Investigate the Effects of Weather Conditions on the Demographic of a Terrestrial Mammal, the European Badger (Meles meles)

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0068116

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

Models capturing the full effects of weather conditions on animal populations are scarce. Here we decompose yearly temperature and rainfall into mean trends, yearly amplitude of change and residual variation, using daily records. We establish from multi-model inference procedures, based on 1125 life histories (from 1987 to 2008), that European badger (Meles meles) annual mortality and recruitment rates respond to changes in mean trends and to variability in proximate weather components. Variation in mean rainfall was by far the most influential predictor in our analysis. Juvenile survival and recruitment rates were highest at intermediate levels of mean rainfall, whereas low adult survival rates were associated with only the driest, and not the wettest, years. Both juvenile and adult survival rates also exhibited a range of tolerance for residual standard deviation around daily predicted temperature values, beyond which survival rates declined. Life-history parameters, annual routines and adaptive behavioural responses, which define the badgers’ climatic niche, thus appear to be predicated upon a bounded range of climatic conditions, which support optimal survival and recruitment dynamics. That variability in weather conditions is influential, in combination with mean climatic trends, on the vital rates of a generalist, wide ranging and K-selected medium-sized carnivore, has major implications for evolutionary ecology and conservation.

References

[1]  Grosbois V, Gimenez O, Gaillard JM, Pradel R, Barbraud C, et al. (2008) Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 83: 357–399.
[2]  Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, et al. (2000) Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts. Science 289: 2068–2074.
[3]  King D (2005) Climate Change: the science and the policy. J Appl Ecol 42: 779–783.
[4]  Tuljapurkar S (2010) Environmental variance, population growth and evolution. J Anim Ecol 79: 1–3.
[5]  Dormann CF, Gruber B, Winter M, Herrmann D (2009) Evolution of climate niches in European mammals? Biol Lett 6: 229–232.
[6]  Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB (2005) Geographical extent and niche properties as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14: 347–357.
[7]  Caswell H (1982) Optimal Life Histories and the Maximization of Reproductive Value: A General Theorem for Complex Life Cycles. Ecology 63: 1218–1222.
[8]  Wolf M, Sander van Doorn G, Leimar O, Weissing FJ (2007) Life-history trade-offs favour the evolution of animal personalities. Nature 447: 581–584.
[9]  Feró O, Stephens PA, Barta Z, McNamara JM, Houston AI (2009) Optimal Annual Routines: New tools for conservation biology. Ecol Appl 18: 1563–1577.
[10]  Parker GA, Maynard-Smith J (1990) Optimality theory in evolutionary Biology. Nature 348: 27–33.
[11]  Kerr B (2007) Niche construction and cognitive evolution. Biol Theory 2: 250–262.
[12]  Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C (2009) Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106: 19637–19643.
[13]  Zhou YB, Newman C, Chen J, Xie ZQ, Macdonald DW (2013). An anomalous and extreme weather event disrupts an obligate seed dispersal mutualism: Snow in a sub-tropical forest ecosystem. Glob Chang Biol. [Epub ahead of print].
[14]  Nogués-Bravo D (2009) Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches. Global Ecology and Biogeography 18: 521–531.
[15]  McNamara JM, Webb JN, Collins EJ (1995) Dynamic Optimization in Fluctuating Environments. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 261: 279–284.
[16]  Sutherland WJ (2006) Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of methods. J Appl Ecol 43: 599–616.
[17]  Davis MB, Shaw RG, Etterson JR (2005) Evolutionary responses to changing climate. Ecology 86: 1704–1714.
[18]  Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, et al. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389–395.
[19]  Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37: 637–669.
[20]  Boyce MS, Haridas CV, Lee CT (2006) Demography in an increasingly variable world. Trends Ecol Evol 21: 141–148.
[21]  Kjellstr?m E, B?rring L, Jacob D, Jones R, Lenderink G, et al.. (2007) Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe. Clim Change 81, 249–265.
[22]  Ruzzante DE, Walde SJ, Gosse JC, Cussac VE, Evelyn-Habi T, et al. (2008) Climate control on ancestral population dynamics: insight from Patagonian fish phylogeography. Mol Ecol 17: 2234–2244.
[23]  Tuljapurkar S, Gaillard JM, Coulson T (2009) From stochastic environments to life histories and back. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 364: 1499–1509.
[24]  Gaillard, JM; Yoccoz (2003) NG (2003) Temporal variation in survival of mammals: A case of environmental canalization? Ecology 84: 3294–3306.
[25]  Campbell RD, Nouvellet P, Newman C, Macdonald DW, Rosell F (2012) The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics. Glob Chang Biol 86: 2730–2742.
[26]  Macdonald DW, Newman C, Nouvellet PM, Buesching CD (2009) An analysis of Eurasian badger (Meles meles) population dynamics: Implications for regulatory mechanisms. J Mammal 90: 1392–1403.
[27]  Macdonald DW, Newman C (2002) Population dynamics of badgers (Meles meles) in Oxfordshire, UK: Numbers, density and cohort life histories, and a possible role of climate change in population growth. J Zool 256: 121–138.
[28]  Macdonald DW, Newman C, Buesching CD, Nouvellet P (2010) Are badgers 'under the weather'? Direct and indirect impacts of climate variation on European badger (Mele smeles) population dynamics. Glob Chang Biol 16: 2913–2922.
[29]  Johnson DDP, Jetz W, Macdonald DW (2002) Environmental correlates of badger social spacing across Europe. J Biogeogr 29 411: 427.
[30]  Gallagher J, Clifton-Hadley RS (2000) Tuberculosis in badgers; a review of the disease and its significance for other animals. Res Vet Sci 69: 203–217.
[31]  Newman C, Macdonald DW, Anwar MA (2001) Coccidiosis in the European badger, Meles meles in Wytham Woods: Infection and consequences for growth and survival. Parasitology 123: 133–142.
[32]  Vucetich JA, Peterson RO (2004) The influence of top-down, bottom-up and abiotic factors on the moose (Alces alces) population of Isle Royale. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 271: 183–189.
[33]  Kruuk H, Macdonald DW (1985) Group territories of carnivores empires and enclaves. In Behavioural ecology: ecological consequences of adaptive behaviour; 25th symposium, Reading, England (Sibly RM, Smith RH), 521–536. British ecological society, Blackwell scientific publications.
[34]  Savill PS, Perrins CM, Kirby KJ, Fisher N (2010) Wytham Woods: Oxford's Ecological Laboratory. Oxford University Press, Oxford. UK.
[35]  Krebs CJ, Berteaux D (2006) Problems and pitfalls in relating climate variability to population dynamics. Climate research 32: 143–149.
[36]  Kruuk H (1978) Foraging and spatial organisation of the European badger, Meles meles l. Behav Ecol Sociobiol 4: 75–89.
[37]  Macdonald DW (1983) Predation on earthworms by terrestrial carnivores. In: Earthworm Ecology (Satchel lJE), 393–414.Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
[38]  Maurel D, Boissin J (1983). Comparative mechanisms of physiological, metabolical and eco-ethological adaptation to the winter season in two wild European mammals: The European badger (Meles meles L.) and the red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.). In: Adaptations to Terrestrial Environments (219–233). Springer USA.
[39]  Parmesan, C; Yohe (2003) G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37–42.
[40]  Simmons LF (1990) Times-series decomposition using the sinusoidal model. Int J Forecast 6: 485–495.
[41]  Le Houérou HN, Bingham RE, Skerbek W (1988) The relationship between the variability of primary production and the variability of annual precipitation in world arid lands. J Arid Environ 13: 1–18.
[42]  Nippert JB, Knapp AK, Briggs JM (2006) Intra-annual rainfall variability and grassland productivity: can the past predict the future? Plant Ecol 184: 65–74.
[43]  White GC, Burnham KP (1999) Program mark: Survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study 46: S120–S139.
[44]  Franklin AB (2001) Exploring ecological relationships in survival and estimating rates of population change using program MARK. In: Wildlife, Land, and People. Proceedings of the Second International Wildlife Management Congress, G?d?llo, Hungary (FieldR, WarrenRJ, Okarma H, Sievert PR), 350–356. Wildlife Society, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
[45]  Jolly GM (1965) Explicit estimates from capture-recapture data with both death and immigration-stochastic model. Biometrika 52: 225–247.
[46]  Lebreton JD, Burnham KP, Clobert J, Anderson DR (1992) Modeling Survival and Testing Biological Hypotheses Using Marked Animals: A Unified Approach with Case Studies. Ecol Monogr 62: 67–118.
[47]  Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multi-model inference: A practical information-theoretic approach. Springer Verlag, New York, USA.
[48]  Mysterud A, Stenseth NC, Yoccoz NG, Langvatn R, Steinheim G (2001) Nonlinear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores. Nature 410: 1096–1099.
[49]  Woodroffe R, Macdonald DW (1995) Female/female competition in European Badgers, Meles meles: Effects on breeding success. J Anim Ecol 64: 12–20.
[50]  Nouvellet P, Buesching CD, Dugdale HL, Newman C, Macdonald DW (2011) Mouthing off about developmental stress: Individuality of palate marking in the European badger and its relationship with juvenile parasitoses. J Zool 283: 52–62.
[51]  Lindsay DS, Dubey JP, Blagburn BL (1997) Biology of Isospora spp from humans, nonhuman primates, and domestic animals. Clin Microbiol Rev 10: 19–37.
[52]  Webb DR, King JR (1984) Effects of wetting of insulation of bird and mammal coats. J Therm Biol 9: 189–191.
[53]  McDermott R, Fowler JH, Smirnov O (2008) On the Evolutionary Origin of Prospect Theory Preferences. J Polit 70: 335–350.
[54]  Van Tienderen PH (1997) Generalists, Specialists, and the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity in Sympatric Populations of Distinct Species. Evolution 51: 1372–1380.
[55]  Peterson AT, Soberón JJ, Sánchez-Cordero V (1999) Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time. Science 285, 1265–1267.
[56]  P?rtner HO (2004) Climate Variability and the Energetic Pathways of Evolution: The Origin of Endothermy in Mammals and Birds. Physiological and Biochemical Zoology 77: 959–981.
[57]  Drake JM (2005) Population effects of increased climate variation. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 272: 1823–1827.
[58]  Folke C (2006) Resilience, Vulnerability, and Adaptation: A Cross-Cutting Theme of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change. Glob Environ Change 16: 253–267.
[59]  Weltzin JF, Loik ME, Schwinning S, Williams DG, Fay PA, et al. (2003) Assessing the Response of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Potential Changes in Precipitation. BioScience 53: 941–952.
[60]  Pimm SL, Jones HL, Diamond J (1988) On the risk of extinction. Am Nat 132: 757–785.
[61]  Fisher-Reid CM, Kozak KH, Wiens JJ (2012) How is the rate of climatic-niche evolution related to climatic-niche breadth? Evolution 66: 3836–3851.
[62]  Millar CI, Stephenson NL, Stephens SL (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl 17: 2145–2151.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133