Based on the
analysis on the development trend of vehicle technology, vehicle price, vehicle
fuel economy and fuel supply price, the new energy vehicle (NEV) passenger car
development scale is projected on different scenario with the application of
life time cost model. Three scenarios are set to find electric vehicle (EV) and
fuel cell vehicle (FCV) development potential in future to their pessimistic
and optimistic assumptions in China. The results are demonstrated: 1) NEV
development needs a long time due to high initial cost for vehicle buyer; 2) EV
will develop quickly under if there is quick development of battery technology;
and 3)FCV can only
develop in a large scale in 20-30 years even in
the optimistic scenario.
References
[1]
X. Ou, X. Zhang and S. Chang, “Scenario Analysis on Alternative Fuel/Vehicle for China’s Future Road Transport: Life-Cycle Energy Demand and GHG Emissions,” Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 8, 2010, pp. 3943-3956.
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.018
[2]
CAERC (China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University), “Sustainable Automotive Energy System in China,” Springer Press, Berlin Heidelberg, 2013.
[3]
Y. Ren, H. Li, R. Sun and L. Guan, “Analysis on Model of Life Cycle Cost of Electric Vehicle Based on Consumer Perspective,” Technology Economics, Vol. 28, No. 11, 2009, pp. 54-58.
[4]
Z. H. Cai, X. M. Ou, Q. Zhang and X. L. Zhang, “Full Lifetime Cost Analysis of Battery, Plug-In Hybrid and FCEVs in China in the Near Future,” Frontier in Energy, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2012, pp. 107-111.
doi:10.1007/s11708-012-0182-1
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[6]
H. Hong, Z. L. Yao, K. B. He and X. Yu, “Fuel Consumption Rates of Passenger Cars in China: Labels versus Real-World,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, No. 11, 2011, pp. 7130-7135. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.031
[7]
H. Huo, Q. Zhang, K. B. He, Z. L. Yao and M. Wang, “Vehicle-Use Intensity in China: Current Status and Future Trend,” Energy Policy, Vol. 43, 2012, pp. 6-16.
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CAERC (China Automotive Energy Research Center Tsinghua University), “Life Cycle Cost Data for Vehicle and Fuel in China,” Technology Report, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 2010.
