Evaluating Environmental Favorability for Tropical Cyclone Development with the Method of Point-Downscaling

A new method is presented to determine the favorability for tropical cyclone development of an atmospheric environment, as represented by a mean sounding of temperature, humidity, and wind as a function of height. A mesoscale model with nested, moving grids is used to simulate the evolution of a weak, precursor vortex in a large domain with doubly periodic boundary conditions. The equations of motion are modified to maintain arbitrary profiles of both zonal and meridional wind as a function of height, without the necessary large-scale temperature gradients that cannot be consistent with doubly periodic boundary conditions. Comparisons between simulations using the point-downscaling method and simulations using wind shear balanced by temperature gradients illustrate both the advantages and the limitations of the technique. Further examples of what can be learned with this method are presented using both idealized and observed soundings and wind profiles.