On the feasibility of tilt test outcome early prediction using ECG and pressure parameters

The tilt test is a valuable clinical tool for vasovagal syncope (VVS) diagnostic, and its early prediction from simple ECG and blood pressure-based parameters has widely been studied in the literature. However, no practical system is currently used in the clinical setting for the early prediction of the tilt test outcome. The objectives of this study were (1) to benchmark the early prediction performance of all the previously proposed parameters, when nonlinearly combined; (2) to try to improve this performance with the inclusion of additional information and processing techniques. We analyzed a database of 727 consecutive cases of tilt test. Previously proposed features were measured from heart rate and systolic/diastolic pressure tachograms, in several representative signal segments. We aimed to improve the prediction performance: first, using new nonlinear features (detrended fluctuation analysis and sample entropy); second, using a multivariable nonlinear classifier (support vector machine); and finally, including additional physiological signals (stroke volume). The predictive performance of the nonlinearly combined previously proposed features was limited [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) 0.57 ± 0.12], especially at the beginning of the test, which is the most clinically relevant period. The improvement with additional available physiological information was limited too. We conclude that the use of a system for tilt test outcome prediction with current knowledge and processing should be considered with caution, and that further effort has to be devoted to understand the mechanisms of VVS.