我国未来时期径流对气候变化的响应
Response of Runoff over the Future Period to Climate Change in China

为揭示未来气候变化对我国水资源的影响，文章采用1961~2000年全国10个水资源一级区的天然径流、降水和气温资料，建立了各水资源分区径流与降水、气温的统计回归模型，并结合公开发布的WCRP耦合模式比较计划–阶段3的降水和气温数据计算了A1B、A2和B1三种气候情景下2011~2050年的径流量，分析了径流量对气候要素的响应。结果表明：各水资源分区降水、气温与径流的相关性显著，回归分析效果很好；A1B、A2和B1情景模式下，海河区、黄河区、辽河区、松花江区、西北诸河区和西南诸河区未来时期(2011~2050年)平均径流量比基准期(1961~2000年)均有所增加；珠江区在三种模式下未来时期多年平均径流深比基准期减少，平均减少幅度3.89%；东南诸河区和长江区在A1B、B1情景模式下径流深增加，A2情景模式下减少；淮河区在A2情景模式下径流深减少，A1B、B1情景模式下增加。

For revealing the impacts of future climate change on water resources in China, this article used the natural runoff, precipitation and temperature of National Water Resources Zone in 1961-2000, established the regression model about the natural runoff, precipitation, and temperature; and calculated the runoff in 2011-2050 in different modes which combinated with the precipitation and temperature data of WCRP open publishing coupled mode comparison plans-stage 3 data, analysised the climate change response on runoff. Results indicates that: the precipitation, temperature and runoff in all water resources zones are correlated significantly, the effects of regression analysis are very good; in A1B, and A2 and B1 3 modes, the future pe-riod (2011-2050) average runoffs in Haihe Zone, Yellow River Zone, Liaohe Zone, Songhuajiang Zone, Southwest Rivers Zone and Northwest Rivers Zone are larger than the baseline period (1961-2000). In the three modes, Pearl River Zone’s future period runoff is less than baseline period by 3.89%; Routheast Rivers Zone and Changjiang River Zone’s runoff are increase in A1B and B1 modes, but reduce in A2 mode; Huaihe Zone’s runoff is reduce in A2 mode, but increase in A1B and B1 modes.