|
|
珠江流域降雨结构时空演变特征研究
|
Abstract:
本文利用珠江流域42个站点1960~2005年46年的日降雨资料，分析了年降雨总量(ATP)、年降雨总天数(ATD)、年降雨强度(ATI)、年平均降雨历时(MWP)以及各降雨历时的发生率和贡献率等降水指标，探讨了各种不同历时降雨的时空演变特征，并运用了改进Mann-Kendall法检验了降雨序列变化的显著性。研究结果表明：1) 珠江流域上游和中部地区降雨量呈现减少趋势，降雨天数在整个流域范围内呈现减少趋势，由此，流域的降雨强度总体上呈现上升趋势，特别是流域的中部和东部地区；2) 流域短历时降雨(2~5 d)的发生率较高，且占总降雨量的比重较大，表明易于出现集中性的降雨，而长历时降雨则出现下降趋势；
| [1] | ZOLINA, O., SIMMER, C., GULEV, S. K., et al. Changing structure of European precipitation: Longer wet periods leading to more abundant rainfalls. Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, 37(6), Article ID L06704. |
| [2] | TANK, A. M. G. K., K？NNEN, G. P. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-1999. Journal of Climate, 2003, 16(22): 3665-3680. |
| [3] | GROISMAN, P. Y., KNIGHT, R. W., EASTERLING, D. R., et al. Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18(9): 1326-1350. |
| [4] | MOBERG, A., JONES, P. D., LISTER, D., et al. Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901-2000. Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 2006, 111(D22): 1-25. |
| [5] | GROISMAN, P. Y., KNIGHT, R. W. Prolonged dry episodes over the conterminous united states: New tendencies emerging during the last 40 years. Journal of Climate, 2008, 21(9): 1850-1862. |
| [6] | BROMMER, D. M., CERVENY, R. S. and BALLING, R. C. Characteristics of long-duration precipitation events across the United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(22): 2-6. |
| [7] | ZHANG, Q., XU, C.-Y., CHEN, X., et al. Statistical behaviours of precipitation regimes in China and their links with atmos- pheric circulation 1960-2005. International Journal of Climatol- ogy, 2011, 31(11): 1665-1678. |
| [8] | ZOLINA, O., SIMMER, C., KAPALA, A., et al. Seasonally dependent changes of precipitation extremes over Germany since 1950 from a very dense observational network. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 2008, 113(D6): 1-17. |
| [9] | KUNKEL, K. E., ANDSAGER, K. and EASTERLING, D. R. Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the con- terminous United States and Canada. Journal of Climate, 1999 12(8): 2515-2527. |
| [10] | KUNKEL, K. E., EASTERLING, D. R., REDMOND, K., et al. Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895-2000. Geophysical Research Letters, 2003 30(17): 1-4. |
| [11] | ZHANG, Q., XU, C.-Y., GEMMER, M., et al. Changing properties of precipitation concentration in the Pearl River basin, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2009 23(3): 377-385. |
| [12] | ZHANG, Q., XU, C.-Y., BECKER, S., et al. Trends and abrupt changes of precipitation maxima in the Pearl River basin, China. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2009, 10(2): 132-144. |
| [13] | 王兆礼, 陈晓宏, 张灵, 等. 近40年来珠江流域降水量的时空演变特征[J]. 水文, 2006, 26(6): 71-75.
Wang zhaoli, Chen xiaohong, Zhang ling, et al. Spatio-temporal change characteristics of precipitation in the Pearl River basin in recent 40 years. Journal of China Hydrology, 2006, 26(6): 71-75. (in Chinese) |
| [14] | WANG, W., CHEN, X., SHI, P., et al. Detecting changes in ex- treme precipitation and extreme streamflow in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2008, 12(1): 207-221. |
| [15] | MANN, H. B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 1945, 13(3): 245-259. |
| [16] | KENDALL, M., GIBBONS, J. Rank correlation methods. A Charles Griffin Title, 1990. |
| [17] | HAMED, K. H., RAMACHANDRA, R. A. A modified Mann- Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 1998, 204(1-4): 182-196. |
| [18] | MITCHELL, J. M., DZERDZEEVSKII, B. and FLOHN, H. Climate change. WHO Technical Note 79, Geneva: World Me- teorological Organization, 1966: 79. |
| [19] | DAUFRESNE, M., LENGFELLNER, K. and SOMMER, U. Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems. Pro- ceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009. |
| [20] | ZHANG, Q., JIANG, T., CHEN, Y. D., et al. Changing properties of hydrological extremes in south China: Natural variations or human influences? Hydrological Processes, 2010, 24(11): 1421- 1432. |
