SEARCHING FOR THE BIG DIE-OFF: AN EVENT STUDY OF 19TH CENTURY CATTLE MARKETS

The nineteenth century range cattle industry continues to capture the imagination of many. Researchers maintain that the industry experienced a rapid rise and then a spectacular collapse, as overstocking resulted in the big “die-off” in 1886-87. However, the story rests largely on anecdotal evidence rather than statistical testing. We subject the claim of a big die-off to modern statistical testing. We fail to find evidence supporting the claim, but find a substantial disruption beginning in 1892, several years after the supposed event. Financial disruptions during the 1890s appear to have had a greater impact in ending the industry.