Selection of Market Demand Forecast Methods: Criteria and Application

The article deals with the theoretical aspects of themarket demand method selection criteria and theirapplication in practice. As the definition of market demandand conditions is related to the achievement of importantgeneral strategic decisions and consumers’ behaviour onthe competitive market, the accurate identification of themarket demand method selection criteria and theirapplication can reduce decision indefiniteness. Hence, themain aim of the article is to analyse market demandforecast method selection criteria, and apply them indeveloping Lithuanian furniture demand forecast.The theoretical part of the article starts with theanalysis of the forecast method reasoning and forecastmethod classification under various economic literaturecriteria. The analysis of the main forecast method groupsdisclosed that it was rather difficult to determine theadvantage of any method in forecast estimation, whereas,always the risk of the wrong method selection remained. Itwas determined that usually unanimous authors’ opinionon the complex application of quantitative and qualitativeforecast methods differed in two aspects: one group ofresearchers supported the priority of quantitative forecastmethods by using qualitative forecast methods as anauxiliary or alternative means, while the other group ofauthors stated that equal application of both types offorecast methods guaranteed higher reliability and carriedmore information.