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Engevista  2013 

CáLCULO DO PRAZO DE VALIDADE E DA VELOCIDADE E DISTRIBUI O DA DETERIORA O DE UM PRODUTO PANIFICADO

Keywords: survival analysis , time until failure , Probabilistic Models , logistic model

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Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to report a research that has investigated about calculating theexpiry date and the speed of deterioration of a baked product. The research method was the laboratoryexperimentation. Ten slices of a baked product were observed for 130 days in the laboratory, in similarconditions to the sale, prior to consumption. The deterioration began on the 14th day, which can be taken asthe validity for the product. It was observed that on the 30th day the distribution of decay among the slicesfits to a normal distribution. It was also observed that the speed of deterioration fits to a logistic regressionmodel. After 130 days, all the slices completely deteriorated. A group of ten slices under controlled conditionsof temperature and humidity was monitored by 60 days, without any observed deterioration.

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