全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

A multi-state model to estimate incidence of heroin use

DOI: 10.1186/1471-2288-13-4

Keywords: Back-calculation , Epidemiology , Heroin , Incidence , Multi-state model

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

Background Existing incidence estimates of heroin use are usually based on one information source. This study aims to incorporate more sources to estimate heroin use incidence trends in Spain between 1971 and 2005. Methods A multi-state model was constructed, whereby the initial state “heroin consumer” is followed by transition to either “admitted to first treatment” or to “left heroin use” (i.e. permanent cessation or death). Heroin use incidence and probabilities of entering first treatment ever were estimated following a back-calculation approach. Results The highest heroin use incidence rates in Spain, around 1.5 per 1,000 inhabitants aged 10–44, occurred between 1985 and 1990; subdividing by route of administration reveals higher incidences of injection between 1980 and 1985 (a mean of 0.62 per 1.000) and a peak for non-injectors in 1990 (0.867 per 1,000). Conclusions A simple conceptual model for heroin users’ trajectories related to treatment admission, provided a broader view of the historical trend of heroin use incidence in Spain.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133