A model for the overwintering process of European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermu ller) (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae) populations

The paper deals with the development, parametrization and validation of a phenology model of the overwintering process of European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermu ller) populations in northern latitudes. The model is built on diapause and poikilothermic population development theories and represents the phenological events of entries into and emergence from pre-diapause, diapause and post-diapause phases. The rate sum models for pre-diapause and post-diapause development are based on published non-linear temperature dependent rate functions. The rate sum model for diapause, however, is negatively affected by the photoperiod during diapause and positively influenced by the photoperiod at the time of diapause entry. The diapause model is parametrized with 3-year data from 25 locations in Europe and Cyprus, and validated with 1-3 year observations from 18 locations in Europe and California. Despite restrictive assumptions and limitations imposed by weather data recorded at variable distances from the observation sites, and the variable qualities of observation data, the model’s predictive and explanatory capabilities are useful for adaptive pest management and assessments of the invasive potential. The need for controlled experiments is recognized and suggestions are made for improving the model.