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Turkey’s Missing Trade, Potential Trade and New Opportunities Türkiye’nin Eksik D Ticareti, Ticari Potansiyeli ve Yeni F rsatlar

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This study aims to determine the potential trade of Turkey with seven geographical regions with which she intensively trades and reveals how much of this potential she uses. The main findings are as follows:On the one hand, while estimating a basic gravity equation it is confirmed that a change in the bilateral trade volume essentially depends on countries’ national income and distance between countries as expected. Nevertheless, contrary to previous studies’ findings, it is observed that border neighbourhood has a positive effect on the trade of Turkey with her neighbour countries. On the other hand, it is revealed that Turkey under-trades with her trade partners. If Turkey had fully used her trade potential during 1995-2013 period, she would have effectuated $ 65,9 billion more export and $ 42,9 billion more imports. Although the European Union (EU) is still her most important trade partner, the actual trade of Turkey with the EU is very close to her potential trade with the EU. On the contrary, there is a great gap between actual and potential trade levels of Turkey with the other regions, especially Africa and Middle East. This situation that emerged new opportunities for Turkish trade sector can be expected to have impact on the foreign trade market diversification policy of Turkey. Bu al ma Türkiye’nin yo un olarak d ticaret yapt yedi co rafi b lge ile potansiyel d ticaretini belirlemeyi ve bu potansiyelin ne kadar n kullanabildi ini ortaya karmay ama lamaktad r. Ana bulgular u ekildedir: Bir taraftan, temel ekim Denklemi (Gravity Equation) tahminlenmek suretiyle, ikili d ticaret hacmindeki bir de i imin temel olarak ülkelerin milli gelirlerine ve ülkelerin aras ndaki mesafeye ba l oldu u, beklendi i gibi, teyit edilmi tir. Buna ra men, nceki al malar n bulgular n n aksine s n r kom ulu unun Türkiye’nin kom ular yla ticaretine pozitif etkisi oldu u g zlemlenmi tir. Di er taraftan, Türkiye’nin d ticaret ortaklar yla potansiyelinin alt nda ticaret yapt ortaya km t r. E er Türkiye 1992-2012 d neminde ticaret potansiyelini tam olarak de erlendirseydi her y l ortalama 65,9 milyar dolar daha fazla ihracat ve 42,9 milyar $ daha fazla ithalat yapm olurdu. Avrupa Birli i (AB) en nemli ticari orta olmas na ra men Türkiye’nin AB ile mevcut ticareti AB ile potansiyel ticaretine ok yak nd r. Buna kar n, Türkiye’nin, zellikle Afrika ve Ortado u gibi di er b lgeler ile mevcut ve potansiyel ticaret seviyeleri aras nda büyük a k vard r. Türk d ticaret sekt rü i in alternatif b lgelerde yeni f rsatlar ortaya karan bu d

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