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Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data

Keywords: conditional maximisation , international migration , international migration flows , international migration stocks , log-linear model , migration estimation

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Abstract:

BACKGROUND International migration flow data often lack adequate measurements of volume, directionand completeness. These pitfalls limit empirical comparative studies of migration andcross national population projections to use net migration measures or inadequate data. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to address these issues at a global level, presenting estimates of bilateralflow tables between 191 countries. METHODS A methodology to estimate flow tables of migration transitions for the globe is illustratedin two parts. First, a methodology to derive flows from sequential stock tables is developed.Second, the methodology is applied to recently released World Bank migrationstock tables between 1960 and 2000 ( zden et al. 2011) to estimate a set of four decadalglobal migration flow tables. RESULTS The results of the applied methodology are discussed with reference to comparable estimatesof global net migration flows of the United Nations and models for internationalmigration flows. COMMENTS The proposed methodology adds to the limited existing literature on linking migrationflows to stocks. The estimated flow tables represent a first-of-a-kind set of comparableglobal origin destination flow data.

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