The effect of education on second births in Hungary: A test of the time-squeeze, self-selection and partner-effect hypotheses

BACKGROUND In recent years, several studies have reported a positive effect of women's education on the transition to second births. This finding contradicts the economic theory of fertility. Three explanations were proposed: the selection, the time-squeeze, and the partner effect hypotheses. OBJECTIVE We propose a modification of the economic theory to account for the positive educational gradient with regard to second births. We empirically examine the effect of women's education on the timing of second births. METHODS We use a sample of women born between 1946 and 1983 from all three waves of the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) data. We estimate lognormal survival models of the timing of second births. RESULTS We find that female education reduces the waiting time to second conception in Hungary. The results remain robust after controlling for sample selection and cannot be explained away in terms of time-squeeze and the partner's education. CONCLUSIONS We conclude that the relationship between women's education and spacing behavior might be a causal one.