Computer Simulation Modelling for the Prevention of Diabetes Mellitus (Prameha)

In India the care of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus could be with western system of medicine or an Indian system of medicine called Ayurveda. This study is concerned with the modelling for the care of people with type 2 diabetes mellitus through Ayurveda. In Ayurveda diabetes mellitus is termed as prameha which is has become a serious health problem in many countries. We describe the use of an individual level systems modelling approach for the progression of prameha that has been used for cost-effectiveness evaluations of various prevention and patient care options. The adopted framework incorporates prameha risk groupings, formulated using the expert opinion which are then fed into a developed simulation model, at the level of individual patients. A multidisciplinary task group, comprising of clinicians and health care modellers, guided the necessary modular development involving the definition of risk groups in the community, natural history of prameha and options for early detection and treatment.