Analytical Predictive Model for Wind Energy Potential Estimation: A Model for Pre-assessment Study

The study was used to develop a model that can be employed to carry out a pre-assessment study of a potential site for wind farm establishment. It made use of 21 years (1987-2007) monthly mean wind speeds from 11 stations spread across the South-West geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The data were assessed from the nation’s meteorological department, Oshodi Lagos. These were then statistically analyzed to develop a model that could predict the likelihood of a site’s capacity for wind farm development. The model could also serve as a pointer to predicting the likely range of wind energy magnitude that can be generated from a site. Further to this, the results obtained from employing the model were compared with those obtained from the well established 2-parameter Weibull statistics and found to be good enough. Thus the model, if employed can serve as a first stop for wind energy investor to make decision on a potential site before comprehensive site assessment study is embarked upon.