THE TECHNIQUE OF EXPERT EVALUATION AND FORECAST OF ACTUAL RELIABILITY OF BUILDING STRUCTURES OF OPERATED BUILDINGS AND ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTIONS

Problem statement. Existing approaches to assessing reliability of building structures are basedon the model which involves exponential distribution. Such a model can be applied only for thesystems with abrupt failures. However, failures in building systems are usually caused by the wear.Results. The analysis of the correctness of calculations and forecasting reliability of buildingstructures is performed using exponentiation distribution. Wrongfulness of the use of the modelsfor assessment of reliability of building structures which are currently operated and have cumulativewear is shown with examples. An approach involving the linearization method is proposed.Conclusions. The approach proposed is straightforward to use, takes into account the changes instructure carrying capacity and does not contain inaccuracies and errors peculiar to the methodsdesigned on the exponential distribution models.