Perception of the situation in the Arctic by key actors and the possibility of conflict escalation

This article focuses on the perception of the situation in the Arctic by key actors. The authors reach the conclusion that the situation in the Arctic is characterized by deepening cooperation. Peaceful development is furthermore supported by a complex network of institutionalized relations and the fact that all territorial disputes so far have been resolved peacefully. The most important question about the near future will thus rest in the distribution of competences between the involved institutions and states. This will eventually lead to the convergence of the interests of the Arctic five who wish to maintain their dominant position in the region. If conflicts escalate, they would most likely only result in limited confrontations and not in a grave crisis, much less war.