INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS IN THAILAND: FORECASTING WITH ARFIMA-FIGARCH APPROACH

Forecasting is an essential analytical tool for tourism policy andplanning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q). Secondary data was used to produce forecasts of the number of international touristarrivals to Thailand for the period of 2009-2010. Research results during this period confirmthat the best forecasting method based on the ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q) model isARFIMA(1,-0.45,1)-FIGARCH(1,-0.07,1). Furthermore, this model predicts that the number ofinternational tourist arrivals in Thailand for the period of 2009-2010 will not go up or beconstant. If these results can be generalized for future years, then it suggests that both the Thaigovernment sector and also the private tourism industry sector of Thailand need to develop thetourism market of Thailand immediately and also develop tourism products in Thailandurgently.