Price Eastimation For Day-Ahead Electricity Market Using Fuzzy Logic

Price estimation is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumersin the new competitive electric power markets. Both for spot markets and short termcontracts, price forecasts are necessary to develop bidding strategies in order to maximizetheir benefits and utilities, respectively. Price estimation has become a very valuable toolin the current upheaval of electricity market deregulation. It plays an important role inpower system planning and operation, risk assessment and other decision making. Thisthesis provides a method for predicting hourly prices in the day-ahead electricity marketusing Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique, based on a similar days approach. The describedapproach uses the Mamdani Inference Method in Fuzzy Editor. In this way, it iscarried out for twenty four steps to predicted next 24 hour prices. The proposed method isexamined on the PJM electricity market. The results obtained through the simulationshow that the Fuzzy Logic model can provide efficient, accurate and betterresults.