Traffic Variability in Benchmarking of Air Navigation Services Providers Cost-Effectiveness

The European Air Navigation Services Providers (ANSPs) currently handle around 26,000 flights per day. According to forecasts, air traffic levels should probably double by 2020. Different benchmarking exercises have shown that European ATM costs, in comparison to other similar systems on the globe, additional € 2-3 billion per year. This strongly implies that European ATM needs to cut costs and improves its performance. Aeronautical organisations such as the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) or Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO) perform benchmarking studies and issue reports, but they both admit that their work is based on factual analysis and not on proper normative analysis and therefore are not entirely objective. Factual analysis is a good starting point, but as already recognized generally, proper methodology should be developed for proper normative analysis. To get a bit closer to objectivity of the results, this paper challenges one of the recognized endogenous factors, the traffic variability. Equalizing the calculations by different variability factors proved that benchmarking order of individual ANSPs changed. Showing an example on how seasonal variability can influence cost-effectiveness and ATCOHour productivity is only one small stone in a mosaic of potential future methodology for normative analysis.