Composi o Probabilística na Avalia o do Risco de Operadoras de Planos de Assistência à Saúde

This project has the purpose of studying a methodology of risk analysis involved in health plans operations and in the control of the solvency of health plans companies. Factors obtained in the site of the Brazilian Federal Regulary Agency for Health Plans and Health Insurance site were selected to represent the different types of risks involved in a health plan company. Composition of Probabilities is used to configure factors and determine, for each type of health plan company (health insurances, medical cooperatives, medicine group, non-profit organizations and health plans companies), those companies closer to the insolvency border. Uniform and Pareto distributions of probability are employed. A representative factor for each kind of risk is choosen. Due to data scarcity and proper risk characteristics dental plans companies and administrative health plans companies were not considered in this study.