Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control

First, we re-analyse data from a classic epidemiological study, the 1854 London cholera outbreak. Using 321 disease sites as input, we evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump - the outbreak's source- ranks first, situated in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. We extend our study with an analysis of reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector Anopheles sergentii. Geographic profiling ranks six of these seven sites in positions 1-6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. In both analyses the method outperformed other measures of spatial central tendency.We suggest that geographic profiling could form a useful component of integrated control strategies relating to a wide variety of infectious diseases, since evidence-based targeting of interventions is more efficient, environmentally friendly and cost-effective than untargeted intervention.Infectious diseases have, throughout human history, been a major cause of death. Just three such diseases - malaria, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis - account for 5.6 million deaths a year, and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) including leishmaniasis and trypanosomiasis are together responsible for 500,000 deaths annually [1]. Recent years have seen a resurgence in vector-borne diseases due to urbanization and development: Jones et al. [2] reported the emergence of 335 infectious diseases between 1940 and 2005.Evidence-based targeting of interventions is a crucial component in the fight against infectious diseases because targeted interventions are more efficient and more cost-effective than untargeted interventions [3]; evidence-based interventions also reduce environmental pollution, minimize impacts on biodiversity and protect human health. For example, malaria parasite transmission is strongly dependent on the location of vector breeding sites that serve as focal points for the dise