The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce

The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus.Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce.Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050.The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. Student quotas for medical schools were decreased by 7.8% from 1986 to 2006. The resulting shortage of doctors in Japan has inevitably led to deterioration in the quality of care [1,2], and has recently become a serious social problem [3-7].The per-capita number of medical doctors in Japan is low compared with those in other developed countries. Japan ranks 59th among the World Health Organization's (WHO) 193 member states in terms of number of medical doctors per 1000 persons [8]. The number of medical doctors per 1000 persons in Japan was 2.29 in 2009. This is smaller than the figures for the United States of America (2.56 in 2000) and the United Kingdom (2.30 in 1997). Among the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Japan falls into the cat