Un’analisi quantitativa delle politiche di rientro dal disavanzo pubblico in Italia

The governments of advanced countries have faced the economic crisis by means of measures that considerably increase their budget deficits. Now they have to absorb these increases, but at the same time supporting recovery. To solve this problem, two different types of intervention have been hypothesized. The first consists of a set of tightening measures devoted to quickly reducing deficit. The second fosters measures devoted to supporting aggregate demand, postponing the reduction of budget deficit to the time when economic activity will grow again. Predictable results of the two hypotheses are determined through an econometric model, changed by modifications simulating, separately, the measures hypothesized in each intervention.