Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025

Annual COPD death rates in Australia from 1922 to 2005 for age groups (50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+) were used. Functional time series models of age-specific COPD mortality rates for men and women were used, and forecasts of mortality rates were modelled separately for men and women.Functional time series models with four basis functions were fitted to each population separately. Twenty-year forecasts were computed, and indicated an overall decline. This decline may be slower for women than for men. By age, we expect similar rates of decline in men over time. In contrast, for women, forecasts for the age group 75-79 years suggest less of a decline over time compared to younger age groups.By using a new method to predict age-specific trends in COPD mortality over time, this study provides important insights into at-risk age groups for men and women separately, which has implications for policy and program development.Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), including chronic bronchitis and emphysema, is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia. It was responsible for 31.2 male and 16.3 female deaths per 100,000 population (age-standardized) in 2005 [1].The major known risk factor is tobacco smoking. However, there is a substantial latent period after the uptake of regular smoking, so that COPD typically only becomes manifest decades later. COPD is the only major condition for which the burden of disease (as measured at the population level) is continuing to increase with an ageing population, which is at a higher risk of developing COPD [2]. This is because COPD results in a progressive respiratory disability, a substantial impairment in the quality of life and frequent hospital admissions. COPD is also accompanied by substantial comorbidities, including depression, heart disease and osteoporosis. Yearly mortality time trends which are collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics provide a sound basis for modelling the