Survival bias and drug interaction can attenuate cross-sectional case-control comparisons of genes with health outcomes. An example of the kinesin-like protein 6 (KIF6) Trp719Arg polymorphism and coronary heart disease

Ten replicates of 1,000,000 observations each were generated reflecting Canadian demographics. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks were assigned by the Framingham equation and events distributed among KIF6 Trp719Arg genotypes according to published prospective studies. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios between KIF6 genotypes. Results were examined for 33%, 41.5%, and 50% fatality rates for incident CVD.In the absence of any difference in percent fatalities between genotypes, the odds ratios (carriers vs. noncarriers) were unaffected by survival bias, otherwise the odds ratios were increasingly attenuated as the disparity between fatality rates increased between genotypes. Additional simulations demonstrated that statin usage, shown in four clinical trials to substantially reduce the excess CHD risk in the KIF6 719Arg variant, should also attenuate the KIF6 719Arg odds ratio in case-control studies.These computer simulations show that exclusions of prior CHD fatalities attenuate odds ratios of case-control studies in proportion to the difference in the percent fatalities between genotypes. Disproportionate CHD survival for KIF6 Trip719Arg carriers is suggested by their 50% greater risk for recurrent myocardial infarction. This, and the attenuation of KIF6 719Arg carrier risk with statin use, may explain the genotype's weak association with CHD in cross-sectional case-control studies. The results may be relevant to the underestimation of risk in cross-sectional case-control studies of other genetic CHD-risk factors affecting survival.Case-control comparisons are more commonly employed for assessing gene associations than prospective cohort studies [1,2]. Their popularity arises from two important considerations: 1) statistical power is often limited by the number of cases, and 2) genetic investigations require no consideration of the sequence of cause and effect. In addition to their being cost-effective, case-control studies may be the only