Economic Analysis of Liquefied Natural Gas Floating Production Storage and Offloading Plant (LNG FPSO) Using Probabilistic Approach

The global yearning for clean and safe environment coupled with the need of monetizing stranded gas fields to meet the growing demand of Natural gas in the world today has called for understanding of the range of potential for commercial realization of Liquefied Natural Gas Floating Production Storage and Offloading Plant (LNG FPSO). This places a heavy burden on the economic evaluation process which will give the maximum insight into the basis for a decision to invest or not to invest in the LNG FPSO. An economic analysis of 5.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) LNG FPSO plant was undertaken. A Monte Carlo simulation method was adopted in this study through the use of Crystal Ball Software. The key uncertainties were represented and their respective impacts on economic viability defined. The deterministic model results obtained from the studies were very impressive with Net Present Value of $2.3 billion at a discount value of 15% and Internal Rate of Return at 32.68%. Probabilistically, 74.96% certainty of having a positive net present value (NPV) and good IRR values far above the hurdle rate for investment in Nigeria was obtained. These clearly showed that LNG FPSO is profitable. Certainty of payback period of not exceeding 5 years was obtained to be 55.89%. Key words: LNG FPSO; Offshore LNG liquefaction; Probabilistic approach; Sensitivity analysis; Economic yardstick